The following summary was prepared on 1 March 2026
Always use your own judgement

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be near average, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, though El Niño conditions may suppress activity later in the season.

Expected Storm Activity

Early forecasts from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) project 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) for the 2026 season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, 2026, closely aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological averages (TSR forecast). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is predicted to be around 125 units, near the long-term norm, indicating typical overall storm intensity.

Climate Influences

The season’s activity will be influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). La Niña conditions, which dominated 2025, tend to enhance Atlantic hurricane activity, while El Niño generally suppresses it. Current forecasts indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral and potentially El Niño by summer 2026, which could reduce the number and intensity of storms during the peak months. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region and Caribbean may partially offset El Niño’s suppressive effects, adding uncertainty to the forecast.

Regional Considerations

While forecasts provide overall storm counts, they cannot predict exact landfall locations. Coastal areas, particularly in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and U.S. East Coast, should remain vigilant, as even an average season can produce impactful storms. Early preparation is recommended, including reviewing evacuation plans, securing homes, and ensuring emergency supplies are ready.

Key Takeaways

• Named storms: 14 (near average)
• Hurricanes: 7 expected
• Major hurricanes: 3 anticipated
• ACE index: ~125 units (near long-term norm)
• Climate factor: El Niño may suppress late-season activity, but warm Atlantic waters could enhance storm formation
• Preparation: Early planning is crucial for safety and property protection, regardless of forecasted averages.

Overall, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be close to normal in activity, but variability due to ENSO conditions and ocean temperatures means residents should remain prepared for potential storms.